Energy, knowledge, and demo-economic development in the long run: a unified growth model

Victor Court (1, 2) , Emmanuel Bovari (3, 2)

1 CERES-ERTI - Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche sur l'Environnement et la Societé / Environmental Research and Teaching Institute
2 Chaire Energie & Prospérité
3 CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne

This article provides a knowledge-based and energy-centered unified growth model of the economic transition from limited to sustained growth. We model the transition between: (i) a pre-modern organic regime defined by limited growth in per capita output, high fertility, low levels of human capital, technological progress generated by learning-by-doing, and rare GPT arrivals; and (ii) a modern fossil regime characterized by sustained growth of per capita output, low fertility, high levels of human capital, technological progress generated by profit-motivated R\&D, and increasingly frequent GPT arrivals. The associated energy transition results from the endogenous shortage of renewable resources availability, and the arrival of new GPTs which redirect technological progress towards the exploitation of previously unprofitable exhaustible energy. Calibrations of the model are currently in progress: (i) to replicate the historical experience of England from 1560 to 2010; and (ii) to compare the different trajectories of Western Europe and Eastern Asia.

Mots clés: Unified Growth Theory; Useful Knowledge; Energy Transition; Demography

Domaines: Economies et finances

Victor Court, Emmanuel Bovari. Energy, knowledge, and demo-economic development in the long run: a unified growth model . 2018. ⟨hal-01698755v2⟩