Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020

Souzana Achilleos (1) , Annalisa Quattrocchi (1) , John Gabel (1) , Alexandros Heraclides (1) , Ourania Kolokotroni (1) , Constantina Constantinou (1) , Maider Pagola Ugarte (1) , Nicoletta Nicolaou (1) , Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Llanes (2) , Catherine Marie Bennett (3) , Ekaterina Bogatyreva (3) , Eva Schernhammer (4) , Claudia Zimmermann (4) , Antonio Jose Leal Costa , Jackeline Christiane Pinto Lobato , Ngibo Mubeta Fernandes , Ana Paula Semedo-Aguiar , Gloria Isabel Jaramillo Ramirez , Oscar Dario Martin Garzon , Laust Hvas Mortensen (5) , Julia A Critchley (6) , Lucy P Goldsmith (6) , Gleb Denissov , Kristi Rüütel , Nolwenn Le Meur (7, 8, 9) , Levan Kandelaki , Shorena Tsiklauri , Joan O’donnell , Ajay Oza , Zalman Kaufman , Inbar Zucker (10) , Giuseppe Ambrosio (11) , Fabrizio Stracci (11) , Terje P Hagen (12) , Ivan Erzen , Petra Klepac , Pedro Arcos González (13) , Ángel Fernández Camporro (13) , Bo Burström (14) , Nataliia Pidmurniak (15) , Olesia Verstiuk (15) , Qian Huang (16) , Neil Kishor Mehta (17) , Antonis Polemitis (1) , Andreas Charalambous (1) , Christiana A Demetriou (1)

1 UCY - University of Cyprus [Nicosia]
2 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
3 Deakin University [Burwood]
4 Medizinische Universität Wien = Medical University of Vienna
5 UCPH - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet
6 St George’s University Hospitals
7 REPERES - Recherche en Pharmaco-épidémiologie et Recours aux Soins
8 EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP]
9 METIS - Département Méthodes quantitatives en santé publique
10 TAU - Tel Aviv University
11 UNIPG - Università degli Studi di Perugia = University of Perugia
12 UiO - University of Oslo
13 University of Oviedo
14 Karolinska Institutet [Stockholm]
15 Bogomolets national medical university
16 University of South Carolina [Columbia]
17 UTMB - The University of Texas Medical Branch

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. METHODS: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. RESULTS: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

Mots clés: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; infection control; mortality; pandemic

Domaines: Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]

Souzana Achilleos, Annalisa Quattrocchi, John Gabel, Alexandros Heraclides, Ourania Kolokotroni, et al.. Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020. International Journal of Epidemiology, 2022, 51 (1), pp.35-53. ⟨10.1093/ije/dyab123⟩. ⟨hal-03334158⟩