Insights into Persistence Mechanisms of a Zoonotic Virus in Bat Colonies Using a Multispecies Metapopulation Model

Abstract : Rabies is a worldwide zoonosis resulting from Lyssavirus infection. In Europe, Eptesicus serotinus is the most frequently reported bat species infected with Lyssavirus, and thus considered to be the reservoir of European bat Lyssavirus type 1 (EBLV-1). To date, the role of other bat species in EBLV-1 epidemiology and persistence remains unknown. Here, we built an EBLV-12transmission model based on local observations of a three-cave and four-bat species (Myotis capaccinii, Myotis myotis, Miniopterus schreibersii, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) system in the Balearic Islands, for which a 1995–2011 serological dataset indicated the continuous presence of EBLV-1. Eptesicus serotinus was never observed in the system during the 16-year follow-up and therefore was not included in the model. We used the model to explore virus persistence mechanisms and to assess the importance of each bat species in the transmission dynamics. We found that EBLV-1 could not be sustained if transmission between M. schreibersii and other bat species was eliminated, suggesting that this species serves as a regional reservoir. Global sensitivity analysis using Sobol’s method revealed that following the rate of autumn2winter infectious contacts, M. schreibersii’s incubation- and immune-period durations, but not the infectious period length, were the most relevant factors driving virus persistence.
Keywords : epidemiology ecology
Complete list of metadatas

Cited literature [26 references]  Display  Hide  Download

https://hal-ecp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01272324
Contributor : Veronique Letort <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, February 10, 2016 - 3:52:53 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, September 24, 2019 - 4:22:05 PM
Long-term archiving on : Saturday, November 12, 2016 - 4:35:34 PM

File

Pons 2014 rabies bats persiste...
Publisher files allowed on an open archive

Identifiers

Citation

Margarita Pons-Salort, Jordi Serra-Cobo, Flora Jay, Marc Ló Pez-Roig, Rachel Lavenir, et al.. Insights into Persistence Mechanisms of a Zoonotic Virus in Bat Colonies Using a Multispecies Metapopulation Model. PLoS ONE, Public Library of Science, 2014, 9 (4), pp.e95610. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0095610⟩. ⟨hal-01272324⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

673

Files downloads

659